Latest Poll Numbers (November 29, 2017): Interpreting the Emerson College Results

Alabama.Roy Moore.Doug Jones.Polls.112917

Click to view image.

On Tuesday evening, Emerson College released new poll results that place Roy Moore ahead of Doug Jones among those surveyed regarding their voting preferences in the Alabama Senate election scheduled for December 12. The most recent four opinion polls indicate a swing back toward Roy Moore. But not all polls are created equal. Each speaks its own language, some more fluently than others.

The Change Research polling that also took place on November 26-27 flipped the edge back to Roy Moore, after its November 14-16 survey had Doug Jones holding a 3-point lead. The recent Raycom News/Strategy Research and Emerson College polls also show Roy Moore with a narrow lead over Doug Jones. However, their previous polls actually gave Moore a lead in excess of 10 percentage points. The spread between Moore and Jones has narrowed in their current polls, even while the spread in the Change Research polling has widened in favor of Moore.

Steve Bannon has announced he will return to Alabama next week to campaign for Roy Moore, who has otherwise not engaged the public or his opponent in recent weeks. Make what you will of the notion that Roy Moore cannot appear in public without an escort from Steve Bannon. As other surveys have recently disclosed, Bannon is far less popular in Alabama than Donald Trump. Roy Moore should be careful what he wishes for.

Advertisements