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A Change Research poll conducted November 15-16 among registered voters shows Democratic Party nominee Doug Jones holding a 3-point advantage over Republican Party nominee Roy Moore in the December 12 Alabama special election for U.S. senator. In the poll, 46% of the voters say they will support Doug Jones, with 43% supporting Roy Moore and 11% undecided.
These results differ significantly from results Change Research obtained in a poll conducted during the 48 hours after the first sexual misconduct allegations surfaced. In that timeframe (November 9-11), 39% of the voters indicated they would support Doug Jones, while 44% indicating they would support Roy Moore.
Here are some additional data points from the most recent Change Research poll:
- 47% of registered voters now believe the accusations and 30% do not. Last week, 31% believed them and 42% did not.
- 70% of those who voted for Moore in the primary think the allegations are false, down from 85% last week.
- 50% of voters say they would be embarrassed if Moore were their Senator. 21% would be proud, and 28% would be neither embarrassed nor proud.
At this point, one significant wild card involves any Alabama impact of the Al Franken allegations, which while perhaps more in the category of “slightly creepy,” remain misdemeanors in relation to the (morally, if not legally) felonious implications of the Roy Moore allegations. The opportunity to claim this pattern of scummy behavior crosses party lines gives undecided voters some wiggle room for returning to Moore, on the basis that “everyone does this.”
Emotional agitation surrounding this debacle is unlikely to abate, However, it may be worth reminding everyone that concrete policy differences remain between Doug Jones and Roy Moore, on the lunch-bucket, schoolhouse, health services, and civil rights issues that impact Alabama residents on a daily basis. With a focus on these policy matters, there is also no doubt that Doug Jones is the vastly superior candidate.