Latest Alabama Poll: Doug Jones Ahead of Roy Moore by 8 Points (November 16, 2017)

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A mid-October Fox News poll indicated a voter tie between Roy Moore and Doug Jones, with 42 percent favoring each of the 2 Senate candidates. The most recent Fox News, from a likely voter survey conducted between November 13 and November 15, shows Moore holding steady at 42 percent, but Doug Jones’s support increasing to 50 percent, with only 8 percent of those surveyed undecided.

Here are some additional data points:

  • Demographics.
    • Age.
      • Under 45: Jones 61% / Moore 30%.
      • 45 and over: Jones 44% / Moore 48%.
    • Gender.
      • Males: Jones 41% / Moore 53%.
      • Females: Jones 58% / Moore 32%.
    • Race.
      • Whites with college degree: Jones 44% / Moore 49%.
      • Whites without college degree: Jones 29% / Moore 64%.
      • Whites who identify as evangelical Christians: Jones 20% / Moore 73%.
  • Approval.
    • Doug Jones: 53% favorable / 33% unfavorable.
    • Jeff Sessions: 51% favorable / 40% unfavorable.
    • Roy Moore: 43% favorable / 50% unfavorable.
    • Luther Strange: 37% / 54% unfavorable.

These numbers are probably not stable. The salacious sexual misadventures of the powerful American male, whether pecadillo or predation, has amplified the emotional volatility of voters in the current polarized political environment. The Al Franken groping stories, while to this point a misdemeanor in comparison to the felonious nature of the allegations against Moore, may swing whipsawed Alabama voters back toward Moore by allowing them to retreat to the “everyone does it” argument. The variable that most warrants focus will be the impact of cascading revelations across both parties on female voters in Alabama, who may find it more difficult to forgive Roy Moore just because a prominent Democrat has also been charged with violating sexual boundaries.